Demographics Now and Then

South Korean births up only ~1.5% in October. The rebound seems to have had the wind largely knocked out of it of late. TFR could end up below 0.90 for 2026 against early hopes of close to 1.0. If the RoK cannot notch a few years above 1.0 now with comeback cohort it’s cooked. https://x.com/aaronal16/status/2115599668042195200

The three Chinese Northeastern Rust Belt provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, & Heilongjiang (which have a far higher population than the two Koreas combined) witness some of the most extreme aging on earth. Liaoning is 32.6% aged 60 & older, Jilin 29.7%, & Heilongjiang ~28%.

Lots of talk on aging China in the media constantly. Well many of its largest cities are already aged. As you can see in the graphic gigantic Chongqing is already 25% age 60+ (8M+ elderly!), Shanghai’s registered residents are 37.6% 60⬆️, & Beijing’s rate is almost 1/3rd!

Hong Kong is one of the fastest aging places on earth. By 2046 almost 3,000,000 of the 8,250,000 Hong Kongers will be 65 or older. While those who can will often work in retirement it is hard to imagine it being a super dynamic place with few children and over 1/3rd of the population pensioners… In fact, as early as 2038 a third of the population will already be elderly. & this will be happening at a time when China’s other large cities are similarly very aged. Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu etc will all face massive pension liabilities & very very small youth cohorts.

Worth keeping South Korean fertility rebound in context. If trajectory maintains & births increase 15% in 2026 annual births will be ~293,000. As you can see from the South Korean population pyramid, comeback cohort of 1991-1995 are all now in their early 30s. Once most have had ~1 kid birth numbers are likely to plunge. The only thing that can avoid this plunge is if many South Korean women start having 2 kids instead of 1 which is a very very tall ask. If this were to happen births could be above or near 300,000 for decades but this would still be below pre COVID birth levels.

Extremely rapid demographic change in Latam means older voters & their interests will be much more dominant in elections to come (as they have been in Europe & North America for decades). Their issues will likely be maintaining/solidifying pensions & benefits. & they turn out. Chile, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Argentina, & Brazil have the fastest aging electorates. In places like Brazil time to reform pensions was a half decade+ ago before demographic change altered makeup of electorate entirely. In 2018 around a quarter of electorate was 55+ now almost a third is.

In the 1990s & even 2000s far more abortions than births was the case in most European post Soviet countries (like Russia,Ukraine, & Belarus). But in those countries this reversed dramatically in late 2000s & 2010s to today. Azerbaijan is a rare drastic abortion increase story. https://x.com/masagget/status/2111030941774999996

While mainly a discussion point in more niche demographic communities at present, African fertility collapse to be visable to all by the 2030s. In West, East, & Central Africa TFR likely to fall below 3.5 by mid 2030s. Will be below replacement in all of North & Southern Africa by then as well. https://x.com/ulmer62336950/status/2084712951802450141

Central Asia has proved itself to be perhaps the most demographically resilient region on earth. Despite rapid growth in per capita income & access to smartphones they (besides perhaps Turkmenistan) have stayed above replacement far longer than almost all similar peers. So for a 2026 estimated fertility rate roundup Kazakhstan is on ~2.35, Kyrgyzstan ~3.5, Uzbekistan ~3.0, & Tajikistan ~3.9. These numbers obviously falling but not nearly as fast as we have seen elsewhere in developing Asia or in regions like Latam.

South Korea managed to partially rebound TFR to take advantage of their last chance cohort (born from 1991 to 1996). They are giving birth now & TFR is rising sharply from 0.72 to~1.0 this year.  After this cohort even if TFR continues⬆️to 1.3,births may fall as post 2000 cohort is relatively so small.