Posts of Demographics Now and Then

South Korean births up only ~1.5% in October. The rebound seems to have had the wind largely knocked out of it of late. TFR could end up below 0.90 for 2026 against early hopes of close to 1.0. If the RoK cannot notch a few years above 1.0 now with comeback cohort it’s cooked. https://x.com/aaronal16/status/2115599668042195200

The three Chinese Northeastern Rust Belt provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, & Heilongjiang (which have a far higher population than the two Koreas combined) witness some of the most extreme aging on earth. Liaoning is 32.6% aged 60 & older, Jilin 29.7%, & Heilongjiang ~28%.

Lots of talk on aging China in the media constantly. Well many of its largest cities are already aged. As you can see in the graphic gigantic Chongqing is already 25% age 60+ (8M+ elderly!), Shanghai’s registered residents are 37.6% 60⬆️, & Beijing’s rate is almost 1/3rd!

Hong Kong is one of the fastest aging places on earth. By 2046 almost 3,000,000 of the 8,250,000 Hong Kongers will be 65 or older. While those who can will often work in retirement it is hard to imagine it being a super dynamic place with few children and over 1/3rd of the population pensioners… In fact, as early as 2038 a third of the population will already be elderly. & this will be happening at a time when China’s other large cities are similarly very aged. Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu etc will all face massive pension liabilities & very very small youth cohorts.

Worth keeping South Korean fertility rebound in context. If trajectory maintains & births increase 15% in 2026 annual births will be ~293,000. As you can see from the South Korean population pyramid, comeback cohort of 1991-1995 are all now in their early 30s. Once most have had ~1 kid birth numbers are likely to plunge. The only thing that can avoid this plunge is if many South Korean women start having 2 kids instead of 1 which is a very very tall ask. If this were to happen births could be above or near 300,000 for decades but this would still be below pre COVID birth levels.

Extremely rapid demographic change in Latam means older voters & their interests will be much more dominant in elections to come (as they have been in Europe & North America for decades). Their issues will likely be maintaining/solidifying pensions & benefits. & they turn out. Chile, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Argentina, & Brazil have the fastest aging electorates. In places like Brazil time to reform pensions was a half decade+ ago before demographic change altered makeup of electorate entirely. In 2018 around a quarter of electorate was 55+ now almost a third is.

In the 1990s & even 2000s far more abortions than births was the case in most European post Soviet countries (like Russia,Ukraine, & Belarus). But in those countries this reversed dramatically in late 2000s & 2010s to today. Azerbaijan is a rare drastic abortion increase story. https://x.com/masagget/status/2111030941774999996

While mainly a discussion point in more niche demographic communities at present, African fertility collapse to be visable to all by the 2030s. In West, East, & Central Africa TFR likely to fall below 3.5 by mid 2030s. Will be below replacement in all of North & Southern Africa by then as well. https://x.com/ulmer62336950/status/2084712951802450141

Central Asia has proved itself to be perhaps the most demographically resilient region on earth. Despite rapid growth in per capita income & access to smartphones they (besides perhaps Turkmenistan) have stayed above replacement far longer than almost all similar peers. So for a 2026 estimated fertility rate roundup Kazakhstan is on ~2.35, Kyrgyzstan ~3.5, Uzbekistan ~3.0, & Tajikistan ~3.9. These numbers obviously falling but not nearly as fast as we have seen elsewhere in developing Asia or in regions like Latam.

South Korea managed to partially rebound TFR to take advantage of their last chance cohort (born from 1991 to 1996). They are giving birth now & TFR is rising sharply from 0.72 to~1.0 this year.  After this cohort even if TFR continues⬆️to 1.3,births may fall as post 2000 cohort is relatively so small.

Belarus is facing a severe demographic crisis. Driven by ultralow fertility (around 1.05) & historic emigration waves, its population is projected to plummet to just 7.45M by 2050. By then, the median age will climb to 49.1 years, with 27.5% of the population aged 65 & up. Outdated but interesting 2020 graphic showed number(thousands; the size of the circles) & share (the numbers in the circles) of population working abroad, by regions of the Republic of Belarus. It has grown catastrophically since then as mass emigration really took off.

There has been a 94% decrease in border encounters between undocumented attempted migrants & US Customs & Border Protection from July 2025-2026 compared to the same period in 2024. The change is massive, just 137,000 encounters compared to 2.4M in 2024. Net international migration to the US has also seen a massive fall(after peaking at 2.73M in 2024)to under 1.5M in 2025. If this is a blip or a lasting change remains to be seen but if the trend continues this number will fall to 321,000 for 2026. A drop of 2.4M between 2024 & 2026! https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2026/10/01/the-worlds-busiest-migration-route-has-gone-quiet

Canadian born women gave birth to only ~210,000 children in 2025 compared to ~330,000 births to Canadian born women in 1990 (out of 405,000) & ~450,000 births to Canadian born women in 1960 (out of 478,000). TFR for Canadian born women as low as 1.10 (level of Poland or Spain). https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2102824097608499291

America needs reforms called for in this piece, 2030s debt & entitlement Sword of Damocles is real. But structurally we’re better positioned than Germany, Japan, UK & much of Europe/East Asia: lower elderly dependency ratio,higher fertility,more dynamic economy. Societies should invest more on the youngest generations in general as that is the future of their culture & society and squeezing them generally leads to suboptimal outcomes. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2026/08/10/when-americas-budget-will-break-disastrously/

The City of Buenos Aires has a lower TFR than China, South Korea, or Singapore… Latam speed running demographic decline. Colombia heading to 1.0. Argentina, Costa Rica, & Chile right on its heels…

The Philippines has a lower TFR than Indonesia or Vietnam (~1.7 vs 2.0 in Indonesia & 1.95 in Vietnam). These countries are more economically comparable to the Philippines than the Philippines is to Japan or Taiwan or China or Malaysia. https://x.com/morebirths/status/2106478879028211965

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Bishkek fertility rate only 1.32. Insane how fast that moved. Kyrgyzstan going to be below replacement before Uzbekistan or Kazakhstan. Almaty, KZ the largest city in KZ still above 1.70 in comparison. Highest TFR regions of Kyrgyzstan Batken & Osh have large Uzbek populations. Also the areas of Northern Kazakhstan well below replacement have ethnic Russian pluralities. Ethnic Russians in KZ have very low fertility rates near ~1.0 in many parts of the country. Ethnic Kazakhs ~3.0 in most parts of the country. Maps from @masagget.

Looking at this article, seems highly unlikely many of these only child seeking only child couples will want to have 2+children. In fact, considering some seem to resent the attention potential partners other siblings get, most may not want any children. https://www.economist.com/china/2026/09/09/only-children-in-china-prefer-to-marry-other-only-children

Poland becomes more vital to Europe by the year, both militarily & economically.  This is why their demographic crisis (fertility rate below 1.1) is of EU wide importance.  The Polish government is rolling out new strategies to spike births two of which are: The "Active Parent Program" providing financial support tied to maternal workforce re-entry. It gives mothers returning to work state funds to hire a nanny,pay a family member (like a grandmother), or pay for daycare, addressing the so called career-sacrifice penalty. Affordable Housing Initiatives to assist millennial parents in particular.  The government is focusing on subsidized municipal rental housing projects rather than just fueling demand with cheap mortgage credits as other countries have played with.

Japan & Germany have already moved hundreds of thousands of jobs to the U.S. but the 2030s will see the them but also South Korea, Taiwan, Italy, & others move hundreds of thousands more,