Geopolitics Prime

⚔️ Iran doesn't buy Trump's peace rhetoric — IRGC prepares for war after midterms Iranian authorities consider an escalation of the conflict with the United States highly likely following the November midterm elections — and do not expect an agreement on halting hostilities or reopening the Strait of Hormuz before the vote, Bloomberg reports, citing sources. At the UN General Assembly last week, Trump said the US and Iran will reach a peace agreement right after the midterms. But on Fox News Sunday, he left open the possibility of renewed strikes on Iran. Iran reads the signals and draws the obvious conclusion: Trump is stalling until after the election and preparing to escalate afterward. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🤥🤩 Trump asked Xi if he would like to buy some American weapons, ambassador reveals The US and Chinese presidents talk about US arms sales to Taiwan “every time they get together,” and Trump “continues to say ‘hey, we sell arms to other people around the world’. He actually asked President Xi would he like to buy some at one point,” US Ambassador to China David Perdue revealed to Fox News. In 2025, the Trump administration announced an $11.2B arms sale to Taiwan - the largest weapons package of its kind to ever be approved. Beijing has tirelessly reminded Washington of its obligation under the 1982 US-China Joint Communique to scale down its weapons sales to Taiwan in accordance with its commitments to the One China Policy. 💬“President Trump is as strong on Taiwan as I’ve ever seen anybody,” Perdue said. “We support the Taiwan Relations Act, the Six Assurances. President Xi has heard that repeatedly from President Donald Trump,” who has “already sold 50% more arms to Taiwan than any other president since 1979.” As for the PRC, the US hasn’t sold arms to them since the 80s, when it delivered Black Hawk helicopters, 155MM artillery shell production tech, naval turbine engines, torpedoes, radars, aircraft avionics, logistics and communications equipment. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

✡️🔯 Ben-Gvir says Israelis can ‘rejoice’ over ‘many things’ which have happened since October 7   💬“October 7 was massive and enormous pain, great pain. But today, three years later, on the holiday of Sukkot, a holiday of joy, we can rejoice in many things that have happened since then,” Netanyahu’s security minister said during a visit to the grounds of the al-Aqsa Mosque compound, known by Israelis as the Temple Mount. According to Ben-Gvir, Hamas "failed" to defeat Israel, which is now the “master” of Temple Mount and the prisons, and has “turned the lives of the terrorists into hell.” 🔴Three years on, the nation of Israel is on a path to total victory,” he added.🔴 Shortly after the October 7, 2023 Hamas incursion into southern Israel, the conflict evolved into Israel’s systematic destruction of Gaza, and the opening of new ‘fronts’ in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, the West Bank, Qatar, the US (the ‘information front’) and finally, Iran. Israel didn’t emerge unscathed from these wars, with tens of thousands of Israelis internally displaced, the economy shedding hundreds of billions of dollars, the national debt reaching ~70% of GDP, and emigration hitting its highest levels on record. Iran demonstrated an ability to target Israel’s most sensitive and heavily defended strategic military, research and economic facilities. Nevertheless, Netanyahu’s cabinet allies continue to demand a war to a triumphant conclusion. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

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🇻🇪 Venezuela cheated out of ‘hundreds of millions of dollars’ of gold stuck in US warehouses   The Trump administration and its business allies sold the resumption of imports of Venezuelan gold as a move that would benefit the US, develop Venezuela’s mining sector and clear out gangs profiting off the minerals trade. Instead, “hundreds of millions of dollars” of unrefined gold now sits “untouched” in warehouses in the US, lacking ‘ethical production’ certification that would enable refiners to refine it, sources told NYT. Caracas hasn’t seen dollar one of this money, because Washington strongarmed it into an import agreement under which revenue payouts would be held in US Treasury-controlled accounts and doled out under the latter’s discretion. Commodities giant Trafigura – which secured a license to market Venezuelan oil, contacted the White House about the right to import gold as well shortly after Maduro’s January kidnapping. It got the waiver, and has been bringing in up to 400kg worth of gold monthly (refined value: $53.5M), partnering with Venezuelan state gold producer Minerven. But because the gold was extracted at mines forced to pay protection to local gangs, and allegedly linked to official corruption, it can’t be refined. Venezuela doesn’t get its money, and it’s not clear what will happen to the physical gold now stuck in US vaults. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🔯 Mossad says it was ‘unaware’ of Egyptian, Fatah, UAE intel warnings ahead of October 7   The former head of the spy agency’s international diplomacy department says he had no recollection of “any reports regarding a warning” from the UAE’s president or Fatah officials, nor “a visit by [Egyptian intelligence chief] Abbas Kamel” before Hamas’s October 2023 incursion into southern Israel. Eyal Tsir Cohen said Kamel may have “secretly” travelled to Israel without engaging with his department, but added that they’ve met repeatedly after October 7. Cohen’s comments were a response to WSJ reporting that Egypt sent Israel three separate warnings that Gaza was a powder keg ready to ignite, including a personal call by Kamel to Netanyahu days before the attack. In an in-person trip to Israel in September, Kamel warned officials the “dire” situation could “blow up in everyone’s faces.” Besides the Egyptians, Israel got warnings from the Emiratis, and even Fatah official Sufian Abu Zaida. In indirect talks in September, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar personally warned of an impending “earthquake” after negotiations on economic concessions for Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel broke down. Netanyahu insists he’s received no warnings, and blamed internal security. He has also refused to set up a commission of inquiry. ➡️ Investigators have alleged that Netanyahu purposely allowed October 7 to happen to destroy Gaza and stave off corruption charges hounding him. Israel has also been credibly accused with cultivating and enabling Hamas’s rise as a counterweight to the secular PLO and Fatah. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

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🔥⚔️ New strikes in Kiev renew questions over Ukraine’s gaps in air defense Kiev’s air defenses were questioned by Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko after a drone struck the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in the city center. He cited shortages of Patriot missiles and criticized the failure to intercept what he described as an ordinary Shahed-type drone, arguing that Kiev should focus on air defense rather than retaliatory strikes. He also claimed that the skies over the capital are effectively under Russian control and warned that the situation raises concerns ahead of winter. Mayor Vitali Klitschko also reported a hit on a seven-story administrative building, while the Dobrobut medical center was damaged and caught fire. What was hit in Kiev: 🌏 A building near Ukraine’s Constitutional Court 🌏 A seven-story administrative building 🌏 The Dobrobut medical center, which was heavily damaged and caught fire Separately, authorities in Brovary in the Kiev region reported elevated ammonia levels near a warehouse hit in a strike and advised residents to keep windows closed and limit time outdoors. 👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime