The Cradle

❗️Gulf stock markets rally as investors assess US midterm fallout, war on Iran Gulf stock markets rose in early trading on Wednesday as investors assessed the implications of the US midterm elections and awaited Washington's next move in its war on Iran. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index climbed 1.7%, supported by a 6.7% surge in Saudi Arabian Mining Company and a 1.4% gain in Al-Rajhi Bank. Qatar's benchmark index jumped 2.3%, with nearly all its constituent stocks trading higher. Qatar Islamic Bank gained 3.3%. Dubai's main share index advanced 2.1%, led by a 3.6% rise in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties. Abu Dhabi's benchmark index rose 0.9%.

UPDATE | Oil prices declined on Wednesday, reversing earlier gains of around $1. By 10:34 GMT, Brent crude futures had dropped $1.75, or 0.7%, to $101.85 a barrel, after falling as much as $2 earlier in the session. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost $1.18, or 1.2%, to $94.91.

BREAKING | An Israeli drone laden with explosives is seen flying at low altitude near residential homes in Tebnine, southern Lebanon.

❗️Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei dismisses US midterm shifts, warns US hostility remains unchanged Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that the outcome of the US midterm elections will not fundamentally alter Washington's hostile policy posture toward Tehran, dismissing expectations of a major diplomatic pivot following the Democratic victory in Congress. In remarks carried by IRNA, Khamenei warned against misjudging political changes in Washington, stressing that basic imperial policy goals remain consistent across partisan lines. He noted that internal "factional shifts" within US politics will not "dissuade it from its hostility towards the Iranian nation," asserting that the primary objective of American leadership remains the "unconditional surrender of the Iranian nation." At the same time, the Iranian leader highlighted that Washington's participation in the US-Israeli war on Iran has produced a "self-made scandal" that severely weakened its international standing. Khamenei declared that the US has "suffered an irreversible decline" as a direct result of its regional military entanglements, adding that "the process of its collapse has accelerated" despite ongoing attempts by both political parties to project imperial strength across the region.

⭕️ Gaza's Health Ministry reported on 4 November that 3 Palestinians were killed, including one who succumbed to previous injuries, and 21 others were injured in Israeli attacks over the past 24 hours. According to the ministry, 1,602 Palestinians have been killed and 5,794 injured in Israeli attacks since the so-called 'ceasefire' took effect on 11 October 2025, while the bodies of 847 Palestinians have been recovered from beneath the rubble during the same period.

❗️Israeli media in panic over Democratic midterm sweep, warns against ignoring growing anti-war shift in Washington The Israeli press reacted with shock on Wednesday following the sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, sounding widespread alarms over the long-term strategic consequences for Tel Aviv as critics of Israeli policy gain significant power in Congress. In an analysis published this morning, Haaretz highlighted progressive candidate Abdul el-Sayed’s victory over pro-Israel candidate Mike Rogers, noting the outcome proved that "even strident opposition to Israel is no barrier to winning competitive federal races." The report emphasized that Sayed secured his Senate seat despite the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) sinking over $30 million into the Democratic primary and spending another $9 million on Rogers' behalf during the general election. Simultaneously, The Jerusalem Post warned that the collapse of Republican majorities threatens to permanently alter the strategic relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv. "The implications of the US midterm elections for Israel could extend far beyond the loss of Republican control of Congress," the paper observed, identifying the US-Israeli war on Iran launched on 28 February as the primary catalyst for Republican electoral losses. Concluding its assessment, The Jerusalem Post cautioned Israeli leadership that "the expansion of the camp critical of Israel, and its growing access to positions of influence, represents a shift that Israel cannot afford to ignore."

❗️AFP citing Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam: • “Faced with the risks of renewed war in the region, I renew my warning of the dangers of dragging Lebanon into a new senseless adventure in service of outside interests.” • “We do not accept the country again becoming a theater for the conflict of others ... [Lebanon] already paid a heavy price.”

❗️️️️️️️Israeli President Herzog receives official Israeli election results as Eisenkot leads recommendations to form next government Israeli President Isaac Herzog received the official results of the 26th Knesset elections on Wednesday, 4 November, paving the way for consultations to determine who will be tasked with forming the next government. According to Ynet and The Jerusalem Post, the Central Elections Committee approved the results after finding no evidence of irregularities or compromised election integrity, despite claims by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party that the election had been stolen. The results leave Israel facing a political deadlock, with Netanyahu’s bloc securing 53 seats, the opposition bloc winning 48, and Palestinian parties Ra’am and the Joint List securing a combined 19 seats, according to The Jerusalem Post. Yashar! leader Gadi Eisenkot is currently expected to receive 48 recommendations from Yashar!, Naftali Bennett’s Yachad, the Democrats, and Yisrael Beytenu, compared with 46 for Netanyahu from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, and Religious Zionism, according to Ynet. The Arab parties and United Torah Judaism have yet to announce their recommendations, leaving the outcome uncertain. The approval process unfolded amid controversy over allegations of foreign interference. Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence agency presented claims of extensive foreign financing and influence operations involving large sums of money, but provided no supporting evidence, according to Ynet. The allegations followed Shin Bet chief David Zini’s request to investigate Palestinian lawmakers Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi without presenting evidence, prompting Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara to warn that elected officials cannot be investigated without sufficient justification. Herzog is scheduled to consult parliamentary factions on Wednesday and Thursday before deciding which candidate has the strongest prospects of forming a government. While Eisenkot could potentially secure broader backing if Palestinian parties recommend him, Netanyahu retains the larger parliamentary bloc. Possible outcomes include a coalition agreement, a unity government, a minority government, or another election if negotiations fail.

Democrats win sweeping landslide in midterms as Iran says US citizens ‘voted no to war’ First Muslim senator Abdul el-Sayed said US citizens do not want their money going to ‘genocide, apartheid, and war’

❗️Tehran says US midterm outcome is direct defeat imposed by Iranian resilience Iranian officials and senior lawmakers characterized the dramatic Republican defeat in the US midterm elections as a strategic victory achieved through Iranian national resilience, asserting that US voters rejected Washington's willingness to fight wars on behalf of Tel Aviv. Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the incoming US administration against disregarding domestic public opinion, emphasizing that Washington's unconditional alignment with Israeli war objectives directly triggered its political collapse at home. "If the United States government betrays their public will … it will learn our no comes with a nightmare," Ghalibaf stated, according to Al Jazeera, arguing that it is time for US policymakers to prioritize their own national interests over Israeli expansionism. Reinforcing the mood in Tehran, the deputy chairman of parliament's internal affairs commission declared that the Democratic congressional sweep represents a historic victory for the Iranian people rather than a standard partisan shift. Iranian leadership maintains that popular economic backlash over soaring energy prices and foreign military entanglements proved that Tehran’s steadfast resistance directly imposed a political defeat on Donald Trump and the Republican party.