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Just In: Democrat James Talarico wins U.S. Senate race in Texas, beating Republican Ken Paxton

TEXAS ELECTION SHOCKER: JON HOLLIS WARNS REPUBLICANS FACE AN UPHILL BATTLE! Election analyst John Hollis says Gov. Greg Abbott's early deficit is a “CANARY IN THE COAL MINE,” with even traditionally safe Republican House seats struggling! “IT'S A BIG HILL TO CLIMB RIGHT NOW!” WILL THE RURAL REPUBLICAN VOTE CHANGE THE PICTURE?

TARRANT COUNTY RESULTS ARE “TROUBLING TO SAY THE LEAST” FOR PAXTON @stinchfield1776 says the early numbers out of Tarrant County are a major warning sign for Ken Paxton, with James Talarico leading there by roughly 20 points and about 80% of the vote reported. “The numbers do not look good.” Stinchfield notes Tarrant has long been considered one of the strongest Republican counties in the country and says Denton County is showing a similarly concerning pattern. @DallasXCEO, reporting from Tarrant County, was even more blunt: “It’s a bloodbath for Republicans.” Both cautioned that Election Day votes could still change the picture, but said the margins in two traditionally red counties are far from what Republicans wanted to see.

PROJECTED WINNER: BYRON DONALDS WINS FLORIDA GOVERNOR’S RACE More good news out of Florida: @SteveCortes reports Byron Donalds is the projected winner for governor. The call follows Ashley Moody’s projected victory in Florida’s U.S. Senate race. “Byron Donalds — winner in Florida.” Two major statewide races, two Republican projected winners in Florida.

BOLLING: DONALDS GAINS AS THE MAP TURNS Using RAV’s Patriot Mobile Battle Map — Built by Real America’s Voice. Powered by @PatriotMobile, @ericbolling says the Florida map is beginning to move. “20 minutes ago, this was all blue.” Bolling points back to the I-4 corridor, where he says several areas that were previously blue are now lightening or turning red as more returns come in. Byron Donalds also jumped by about a full percentage point in the latest update. At the same time, Bolling says the Florida Senate race remains extremely close, with Ashley Moody trailing Angie Nixon by only a small margin with roughly 76% of the vote reported. “This one is a tight race.”

FLORIDA RETURNS FLASH EARLY WARNING SIGNS FOR REPUBLICANS @CarolineWren says the first post-close returns are making Republicans nervous after strong Election Day turnout had initially boosted confidence. “The early returns I think are not looking that great right now for Republicans.” She points to Florida, where Anna Paulina Luna was up by fewer than 1,000 votes with 95% reporting, while Byron Donalds’ governor’s race also appeared much tighter than expected. Wren says some Hispanic counties appear to be moving away from Republicans in the early data and warns that tight Florida races could signal a difficult night elsewhere. “If these races are this tight in Florida, I think we’re going to be looking for a very long night for Republicans.” She says the next major races to watch are in Florida, South Carolina, and Ohio, with Maine likely to take much longer to resolve.