Posts of Angelo Giuliano 🇮🇹🇨🇭

Germany's Merz on Taiwan: "Germany will maintain its One-China policy, but we will decide how we implement it." He's on a four-day Asia tour, Singapore, Japan and South Korea, pitching closer ties with Asia and warning about pressure from China. "We will decide how we implement it." What does that even mean ? One China is not a menu. Germany established relations with Beijing in 1972 on that basis. On the same trip he's telling middle powers in Europe and Asia to assert their own interests as the global order erodes, and pushing an EU deal with the CPTPP trade bloc. Assert your own interests, he says. Except on Taiwan, where Berlin still reads from Washington's script ? Good luck with that. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2116140136383820054

The West sends lectures to Africa. China sent a rescue team with radar into the rubble in Nairobi. A building under construction collapsed in Eastleigh, Nairobi. Blue Sky Rescue, a Chinese humanitarian team, arrived with radar life detectors, seismic acoustic sensors and snake cameras, and picked up two life signals under the concrete. 20 people were still missing on Tuesday. No conditions. No IMF program. No speech about democracy. Just people and machines showing up when it matters. That's how you win hearts in Africa. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2116119311345717329

Brussels wants tariffs AND quotas on Chinese goods. Beijing says that breaks WTO rules. After a trade ministers' meeting in Dublin, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said the bloc would consider broad safeguards to move fast against Chinese imports. The Commission also plans three new trade tools by Christmas, including a "kill switch" to cut Chinese firms off the EU market. China's commerce ministry: restricting normal trade will "push up inflation in the EU" and hurt Europe's own downstream industries. This, weeks after Beijing agreed to cap hybrid car exports to the EU, with growth of 6% a year for four years. Europe has affordable Chinese tech on one side and US pressure on the other. It keeps choosing Washington and paying more for everything. Then it wonders why its industry is dying. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2116118950866207184

Washington squeezes Iran's sea trade. Iran puts its exports on a train to China. On 28 October the first container export train left Qom: about 50 containers of bitumen, heading through the Incheh Borun border crossing and Central Asia to Xi'an. Since the maritime restrictions, rail freight from China to Iran has grown about tenfold, WANA reports. Before the war a Chinese train came into Iran every three to four days. Now it's one a day. This is what sanctions do in a multipolar world. They don't stop trade. They move it inland, onto routes the US Navy can't reach. Every blockade Washington imposes builds another rail line across Eurasia. Be informed. Not entertained. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2116034734887522395

Kyiv has found a new culprit for its drone problem: Chinese engineers. Zelensky's defence-tech adviser Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov says Russia's jet-powered Geran-5 has been recorded at up to 1,000 km/h while maneuvering. Then: "Unfortunately, it's not just Russia. It's China, too." He claims Chinese engineers work on control modules for Alabuga, the drone plant in Tatarstan. Evidence made public ? None. Yes, Chinese-made engines, cameras and modems have turned up in Shahed-type drones. Commercial parts are sold all over the world. Beijing says it sends no weapons to either side and has put export controls on drone parts. Washington and Europe ship missiles and intelligence to Kyiv openly. That's "support". Chinese components are "aggression". https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2116024443529252981

Jeffrey Sachs goes back to 1943. "At the Cairo Conference... it said that those territories that had been seized by Japanese imperialism... would be returned to China. This was absolutely clear, and Taiwan was on that list." The Cairo Declaration, signed by Roosevelt, Churchill and Chiang Kai-shek, names it : Formosa and the Pescadores "shall be restored" to China. Potsdam 1945 repeated it. UN Resolution 2758 in 1971 settled who holds China's seat. Even after the civil war, Sachs says, the fight was over whose China it was. Never whether Taiwan was part of it. So how did it become a "geopolitical issue" ? "Because the United States unfortunately is making provocations." His advice to Washington, in one line : "Don't make trouble where you shouldn't make trouble." History wrote it down 80 years ago. The arms dealers just never read it. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2116010599582929170

Kishore Mahbubani tells a story you won't read in Western papers. Former US ambassador to China Stapleton Roy, fluent in Mandarin, told him that at a meeting with Obama, "maybe 2014", Xi Jinping offered to demilitarize the South China Sea. "The United States, instead of accepting the offer, rejected the offer. And that's why the militarization began." What is on record : September 2015, White House Rose Garden, Xi says China "does not intend to pursue militarization" in the Spratlys. Washington's answer was more patrols, then years of "China lied" headlines. Mahbubani's other point > > China is "the world's number one trading power" > so it has "a greater vested interest in freedom of navigation than the United States" I have heard the "China will block the sea lanes" line for years. Block its own trade ? So was there an offer on the table ? And if there was, who walked away ? https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115995302612398309

Clown World. “China prints $”…WTF. Sadly those guys have millions of views every day. And…the rest of the tweet is as pathetic. Mario Nawfal, Alex Jones, Prof. Jiang, TYT, it is all about “entertainment” and misinformation. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115992272173154796

𝗪𝗛𝗬 𝗖𝗛𝗜𝗡𝗔 𝗗𝗢𝗘𝗦𝗡'𝗧 𝗡𝗘𝗘𝗗 𝗛𝗘𝗚𝗘𝗠𝗢𝗡𝗬 People keep asking me if China will try to rule the world the way the West did. A lot of Chinese friends answer with Confucius, harmony, peace-loving civilisation. I understand that, but I don't think it's enough. Every big civilisation has had its conquests, China included. Quoting old philosophers doesn't tell you what a country will do tomorrow. Ken Leong wrote a piece that makes a better case, and I mostly agree with it. Not morality. Realism. 𝗪𝗜𝗡𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗕𝗔𝗧𝗧𝗟𝗘𝗦, 𝗟𝗢𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗦 Look at America. The strongest military in history. Afghanistan, 2001. Taliban gone in weeks. Twenty years and a fortune later, the Taliban walked back in. Iraq, 2003. Saddam gone fast. Then insurgency, sectarian war, and Iran ending up with more influence than before. Iran, this year. Huge strikes, lots of damage. And still no settlement, while shipping in Hormuz and oil prices tell you who's really paying. Smashing an army is one thing. Getting the result you wanted is something else. 𝗔 𝗖𝗢𝗨𝗡𝗧𝗥𝗬 𝗜𝗦 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗔 𝗠𝗔𝗖𝗛𝗜𝗡𝗘 You can't just push harder and get more obedience. A society is messy. Institutions, history, religion, family, money, all tangled up. Knock out a government and you knock out the police, the ministries, the jobs. People resist. You crack down. They resist more. The thing you went in to stop keeps feeding itself. More force, past a point, gets you less control. I think that's the lesson Washington keeps refusing to learn. 𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗬𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗜𝗦 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗡𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗘𝗗 China lives off trade. Markets, energy, shipping lanes, tech, finance. So does America. Hurt the network and you hurt yourself. Buddhists have a word for it, everything arises together. Chasing total security usually makes you less secure. And conquest doesn't pay like it used to. You can't occupy a chip factory and keep it running. Its value is in the engineers, the suppliers, the power grid, the customers. Bomb the system and the building is worthless. 𝗕𝗨𝗜𝗟𝗗 𝗥𝗢𝗔𝗗𝗦, 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗕𝗔𝗦𝗘𝗦 China got rich inside the global system. Why would it burn that down to play empire? Belt and Road isn't charity, and I won't pretend every project went perfectly. But building ports and railways where others also gain is a smarter bet than invading anyone. Self-interest, just the long-term kind. That fits how China works, as I see it. Lots of debate, weigh the costs, adjust. Pragmatic, not ideological. 𝗧𝗔𝗜𝗪𝗔𝗡 This is the hard one. Beijing sees it as sovereignty. Others see a threat. Everyone arms "defensively" and everyone feels less safe. A war there would be a disaster for everyone, China included, and for the whole world economy. That's exactly why patience has to be a deliberate choice, not an afterthought. 𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗢𝗡𝗚 𝗘𝗡𝗢𝗨𝗚𝗛 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗧𝗢 𝗡𝗘𝗘𝗗 𝗜𝗧 China doesn't need to claim it's more virtuous than anyone. It just needs to look at what happened to the last superpower and not repeat it. Maybe the real test of a great power isn't how much force it can use, but how much it can get done without using it. A country that tries to dominate everyone ends up weakening itself. One that understands how connected we all are can build something that lasts longer than domination ever did. Credit to Ken Leong for the original article. Be informed, not entertained. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115987452104204606

No text

33 expelled from the Communist Party in one plenum. A record. 16 of them from the military. Among them former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and former Politburo member Ma Xingrui. Also ex-diplomat Liu Jianchao and former securities regulator Yi Huiman. Attendance fell to 279 Central Committee members, from 315 a year ago and 364 in July 2024. General Zhang Shengmin, who led the PLA's anti-graft drive, went up to the Politburo. Western media call it a "purge" and read palace intrigue into every empty seat. In the US, generals who lose wars retire onto defence-company boards. In China, generals caught with dirty hands lose everything, even the party card. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115980095391514737

A US general says the Army is deploying across the Pacific as if China could invade Taiwan next year. Gen. Ronald Clark, head of US Army Pacific, told a conference in Honolulu the "Davidson window" is "still valid". 2027 is "snapping the chalk line to say we need to be ready by this date". Under "Army Ready Forward", the US rotates equipment and troops west of the Date Line, onto the island chains closest to China. Small problem. The US intelligence community's own threat assessment in March said Chinese leaders do not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027. So why keep the date alive ? A deadline sells weapons, budgets and bases. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115978048055267772

Beijing sent a defence attaché to an ASEAN defence ministers' meeting. That's the lowest level since 2010. China's defence ministry says Manila "allowed a certain self-serving politician to act recklessly and abuse its chairmanship to put up obstacles to China's participation". Spokesman Zhang Xiaogang added that "many ASEAN countries have raised questions and opposition". So Senior Captain Yang Lei went to Cebu. He was received by an undersecretary, not by Teodoro. Remember, Beijing sanctioned Teodoro in June. The same man chaired the meeting and hosted Hegseth, Koizumi and the "Squad" on the sidelines. Teodoro's reply : "it is China's position, it is not ASEAN's position". Fine. But ASEAN only works when every neighbour is welcome at the table. A chair who rolls out the red carpet for Washington and rations seats for Beijing isn't neutral. He's an extension of someone else's strategy. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115977311782859241

Foreign investment pledges in Nepal fell 53.8% in a quarter. Onlinekhabar : FDI commitments of Rs 16.23 billion in the first quarter across 422 industries, against Rs 35.13 billion a year earlier. 417 small projects. 2 medium. 3 large. I'm not surprised. A year after the Gen Z uprising, investors see a judiciary in scandal, governments changing hands and floods cutting the trade routes. This is the hidden cost of a "revolution" that the Western press celebrated. They get the slogans and the cover photos. Nepal gets the bill. Capital doesn't flow into chaos, it waits on the sidelines. Ask who benefits when a country stays poor, unstable and dependent on aid. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115976320928842079

Jeffrey Sachs, in four short sentences : > "The U.S. should stop harming Taiwan." > "That would be in favor of Taiwan's security and in favor of China's security" > "it's a very dangerous flashpoint" > "the U.S. has to stop thinking it can do what it wants unilaterally" Note the verb. Not "stop defending". Harming. Sachs's argument is that the weapons make Taiwan less safe, not more. Every new package tells Beijing peaceful reunification is being closed off, and turns the island into the front line of somebody else's war. Washington signed a communiqué in 1982 saying it intended to "gradually reduce" arms sales. More than forty years later, the sales are the biggest ever. I think most people in Taiwan want what most people anywhere want : trade, family across the Strait, no war. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115975035093725306

Lai Ching-te says Beijing is meddling in Taiwan's 28 November local elections. With AI, "cross-border repression" and organised crime groups. He told the DPP's Central Standing Committee on Wednesday not to be "overly optimistic". The KMT sees the threat closer to home. Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun calls the vote an "asymmetric war" and "unfair", accusing the DPP of mobilising the machinery of the state. The KMT wants 2-3 volunteers at each of Taiwan's 18,244 polling stations to watch the count. Taipei's mayoral race is in "close combat", with polls swapping leaders. Notice the pattern. Each time the DPP looks nervous before a vote, "Chinese interference" becomes the headline. If the DPP loses on 28 November, will it blame the voters, or Beijing ? https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115960330140700826

Hegseth wants a "US-ASEAN framework for defense cooperation". Read the small print. In Cebu on Wednesday he pitched it for the 50th anniversary of US-ASEAN ties in 2027, a "practical framework" to guide cooperation "over the next several years". Work starts as soon as Singapore takes over the ADMM-Plus chair. His priorities : > maritime domain awareness > military interoperability > naval cooperation Interoperability with whom, and against whom ? Nobody in that room needs a map. He called it "peace through strength". Strong enough to deter, "quiet enough to avoid needless escalation or public theatrics". Quiet. That's the word I'd remember. Bases, drones and storage depots don't need press releases. ASEAN spent 20 years building a forum where everyone sits at one table. Washington now wants its own table inside it. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115960321508852024

Filipino troops are training in Okinawa right now, next to Taiwan. The AFP joined Exercise Keen Sword 2026, running 19 to 29 October at the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force's Ishigaki garrison. Alongside Japan and the US : Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands and New Zealand. Drills include : > air and missile defence > facility protection and repair > logistics and resupply > casualty evacuation and maritime operations Ishigaki sits in Japan's southwestern islands, right next to Taiwan. Germany. France. The Netherlands. European militaries drilling missile defence on an island next to Taiwan, and the Philippines is in the line-up. The AFP says it's about a "peaceful, stable and secure Indo-Pacific". Peace doesn't usually need casualty evacuation rehearsals. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115818138831053188

US Marine Reaper drones are now flying out of Palawan. USNI News reports Marine Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Squadron 1 is operating MQ-9A Reapers from Antonio Bautista Air Base in Puerto Princesa, according to a logistics document it reviewed. A new expeditionary hangar has appeared on satellite imagery, the same model VMU-1 uses at Basa Air Base in Luzon. From there the drones can reach maritime features more than 300 miles away and watch Chinese deployments in the Spratlys. Think about who controls that picture. US sensors, US aircraft, US data, flying from Philippine soil, feeding "intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance" on the most sensitive flashpoint in Asia. When something goes wrong out there, guess whose territory the drones took off from. Manila carries the risk. Washington keeps the footage. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115801060866666648

NEPAL GEN-Z useful idiots in Jail. 1,800 Gen Z activists are still in detention in Nepal, a year after the uprising, according to movement leader Sarishma Thapa. Families met in Pokhara this week demanding their release and the 10-point agreement signed with the government. 14 are jailed in Pokhara alone. One father says his 14-year-old son was charged and sent to a juvenile home. Monica Niroula : "Those who burned Singha Durbar have become ministers and MPs, but only youth and children living ordinary lives are being beaten in the name of justice." Thapa says implementing the deal would put 17 ruling party MPs and relatives at risk. So who actually won September 2025 ? The kids on the street went to jail. A new party went to Singha Durbar. And Washington's delegations started flying in. Ask who benefited before you call it a revolution. https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2115801028323098897