War in the Middle East 🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 could, in all likelihood, resume once the U.S. midterm elections have concluded, for several reasons: 1️⃣ The United States failed to force Iran to capitulate in the spring, yet it has not abandoned the goal of resolving the crisis—a crisis it helped create in the region. There is uncertainty regarding future Israeli actions, further complicated by the outcome of the elections. It should be noted that the current Israeli government appears keen to continue operations in an effort to bring about the capitulation of the Iranian regime. 2️⃣ Meanwhile, Iran is suffering the consequences of the conflict, particularly on the economic front. The country is no longer able to export a portion of its resources, which has crippled its finances and intensified social pressure—the primary threat to the regime's survival. In recent months, Iran has retrieved a significant number of missile launchers and drones from its network of tunnels, ready for deployment should a conflict erupt. Furthermore, the country has received support from Russia, the full extent of which remains difficult to gauge. 3️⃣ Although the Iranian regime "won" the initial phase of the conflict by surviving—effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and inflicting lasting damage on the global economy—the country remains in a vulnerable position. Its energy infrastructure is at risk, its exports have ground to a halt, and it suffers from a critical lack of air defense systems and fighter aircraft. Militarily, the country finds itself isolated from its key allies, with the notable exception of Russia. 4️⃣ The major losers in this war are the Gulf states—Saudi Arabia (which is simultaneously facing significant difficulties in Yemen), the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain—as well as, to a lesser extent, Oman, Kuwait, and Jordan. All of them are bearing the full brunt of the halt in oil and gas exports, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the bombardment of energy infrastructure. This summer, the Saudis, Pakistanis, and Turks signed the "Mecca Pact" and traveled together to Tehran to engage in negotiations. According to unconfirmed rumors, the Emiratis and Saudis may have offered large sums of cash to Iran in exchange for an end to Iranian strikes on their oil and gas facilities. ‼️ Why is a return to war likely? In both the United States and Israel, the most recent operation has left a bitter aftertaste. Iran has survived—and even emerged stronger by demonstrating its capacity to endure. Yet, a prolonged conflict would actually favor the Israelis and Americans, who are not as severely affected by the consequences of the Strait of Hormuz being closed. However, the ongoing shock to the global economy is compelling Donald Trump to take action. Should hostilities resume, it is probable that the Americans would primarily seek the regime’s capitulation regarding its attempt to assert control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively returning the region to its pre-war status quo. I will, of course, continue to monitor the situation in the region; at present, I remain pessimistic regarding the future trajectory of oil and gas prices.
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