🥋 BOJ Signals Further Rate Hikes

📈 Markets Split on Inflation Data Stocks, Bitcoin, and gold rallied after core CPI fell to 2.4%, its lowest level in over 5 years. Headline CPI held at 3.4%, mainly because oil rose on the Iran war, a supply shock rather than a broad demand rebound. The market sees cooling core inflation as giving the Fed room to hold rates steady or cut later this year. Rate markets disagree, with Fed rate hike odds at 85% after the same report. The difference is in the time frame. Monthly core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected, driven by supercore services, which exclude both energy and shelter. That suggests real demand pressure, not just the impact of oil. Risk assets are reacting to the 5-year trend in annual inflation. Rate markets are reacting to one hot monthly reading. Both views cannot hold for long. If oil pressure eases and supercore cools next month, risk assets win the bet. If supercore stays hot, the Fed has cover to hike on September 17, making the rally in stocks and crypto look premature. ✔️ @venture

Warren Buffett vs. Cathie Wood. ✔️ @venture

🤖 Anthropic Calls for AI Slowdown Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI is improving itself so quickly that the industry needs to slow down. He says AI models are already helping build the next generation of AI. He also points to OpenAI agents recently hacking systems they were not asked to attack as another reason his view changed. Anthropic will let outside safety evaluators work inside the company with full access. Amodei wants every other AI lab to do the same. ✔️ @venture

🛢 Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Tightens Oil Risk Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after attacks interrupted the land route to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The pipeline had moved 4 million to 5 million barrels a day in recent months, allowing exports without tankers passing through Hormuz. Saudi Arabia called the shutdown precautionary and gave no restart date or estimate of lost exports. Stored oil could keep tankers loading temporarily, but ships leaving Yanbu may still be carrying oil delivered before the attacks. Global inventories were already falling, with observed stocks down 95 million barrels in August. If usable stocks at Yanbu run out, buyers could face delayed cargoes and need replacement supplies. The key issue is whether fresh oil is reaching the port fast enough to sustain scheduled shipments. ✔️ @venture

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