📊 A 1987 Crash Warning Signal Is Flashing Again

🗳 Durbin Calls Trump Voting Moves Worst Threat Since Civil War Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said Tuesday that President Trump's policy proposals and executive orders on voting represent the "most serious challenge" to the U.S. government since the Civil War. Durbin made the remarks in an interview with CNN's Sara Sidner, who asked whether Democrats have a plan to secure voter rights. Source

🏦 Fed Raises Rates for First Time in Three Years, One More Hike Expected The Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday for the first time since July 2023, ending a stretch of more than 1,100 days without an increase as the central bank moves to combat persistent inflation. The FOMC voted 12-0 to lift the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.0%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh led the unanimous decision, with the committee signaling one additional rate hike is expected before year-end. The move ends a prolonged period of holds and cuts and marks the first increase under Warsh's leadership at the Fed. Source

📊 Is the U.S. Economy Overheating Again Oil near $110, Treasury yields at 5%, an AI-driven investment surge, and persistent inflation have revived a debate the Federal Reserve has not confronted in years: whether the U.S. economy is running too hot. The question carries direct consequences for monetary policy. If the economy is overheating, the Fed — under potential future chair Kevin Warsh — may need to keep rates elevated or tighten further, rather than pivot toward cuts. If it is not, premature tightening risks unnecessary economic damage. The combination of high energy prices, elevated long-term borrowing costs, and a capital spending boom tied to artificial intelligence is making the Fed's assessment unusually difficult, with the outcome likely to shape rate decisions for months ahead. Source

💻 1 in 5 AI Researchers Put Extinction Risk at 18% in 2024 A 2024 survey of more than 1,500 leading AI researchers found the average estimated probability of an AI-driven human extinction scenario was 18%, and researchers warn that figure continues to rise. Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon reignited debate on existential AI risk, while OpenAI researcher Daniel Selsam described the situation as a "ticking time bomb." A former DeepMind researcher stated AI could kill all of humanity. The findings reflect a growing unease inside the AI research community itself — among the scientists building the systems — about long-term catastrophic outcomes. Source

💻 SEC Creates Five-Year Exemption for Tokenized Stock Trading The Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled its "innovation exemption" Thursday, establishing a framework that allows tokenized U.S. stocks to trade on public blockchains without platforms registering as traditional exchanges. The order creates two five-year exemptions: one for venues hosting tokenized stock trading and a second covering automated market makers facilitating such trades. The exemption excludes price-tracking "synthetic" tokens and permits companies to block tokenization of their own shares. Trading caps and transparency requirements apply to qualifying venues. The move comes two days after the Senate voted to block the Clarity Act crypto market structure bill from advancing, and opens a potential path toward 24/7 stock trading on blockchain infrastructure. Source