🔎 We broke this level, and now the bulls' last line of defense is the 20 EMA.

🤑 We played that move well. Now I’d like to see the local high at $82,300 get taken out.

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↗️ Market Overview BTC: $77,836 ETH: $2,491 Fear & Greed Index: 56 (Greed) BTC Dominance: 59.30% 😎 The trendline is gradually playing out — we’re currently around $78K. If we break this level, we could move higher toward $79–80K. But what happens next is still an open question. Once again, the entire macro backdrop points toward a downside move. But if that downside is obvious to everyone in the market — what’s the point of it?

🦅 Narrative of the Week: The Fed’s Hawkish Pivot The key narrative this week was the sharp shift in expectations around the Fed’s future policy. A strong jobs report, hotter-than-expected PPI, and hawkish CPI effectively pushed expectations for near-term rate cuts out of focus. More importantly, the probability of a rate hike on September 16 surged from around 68% to 82% after the CPI release, briefly exceeding 90%. Despite this macro backdrop, Bitcoin has yet to show a full-blown bearish reaction. The market attempted to push prices lower, but buyers quickly stepped back in. But the key question now is how long the market can continue to ignore the increasingly hawkish Fed expectations — and how it will react when the rate decision is announced next week.

↗️ Market Overview BTC: $76,929 ETH: $2,457 Fear & Greed Index: 50 (Neutral) BTC Dominance: 59.30% 😳 I’m a bit late with today’s update because I was hoping we’d get some more interesting signals throughout the day. But the market had other plans — despite a ton of important external factors, it has simply stalled. The only thing worth noting is that price remains stuck below the trendline we identified earlier. But saying this alone is enough reason to enter a trade would be a serious exaggeration. ❗️ I’ll only act in two cases — if price drops below $75K or breaks above the trendline. Even then, I’m starting to feel that opening short-term trades over the next few days might not be worth it at all. The market will probably chop around and shake out traders in both directions before the real move. And as I see it, that move should be to the downside.